01What the curve shows
For each robot type, what a used robot sells for at each age, shown as a dollar value and as a share of its price when new. The chart shows the risk engine's curve for a palletizing cell. That curve is what our examples use to size a loan.1
02Where prices come from
Listings. Asking prices for used robots on online marketplaces. One marketplace alone lists 28,258 used industrial robots.2 Asking prices run above sale prices, so we treat them as an upper bound.
Auction results. Prices paid at auction when fleets, factories or companies are sold off. They set the floor.
The robot's details. Model, build year and condition, so each robot is priced against its own family and age.
The price tool runs on 1,744 used-robot listings and 26 auction results,3 with the model and its accuracy shown on the page.
03How robots are grouped
Robots are grouped by type (for example industrial arms, collaborative arms, mobile robots, pallet movers, delivery and cleaning robots), and within a type by manufacturer and model wherever enough listings exist. Each fleet is priced robot by robot.
04How values become a loan
The loan is sized below what the robots would resell for, so the collateral covers the debt as the robots age. In our example fleet, the advance is 70% of fleet value.4 The actual advance depends on the robot type, its resale history and the lender.
Listings and auctions price the arm alone. The value of a complete installed cell comes from the risk engine's curve, an assumption we state openly.1
05What the examples on this site are
The resale values on the marketing pages follow the risk engine's curve for a palletizing cell.1 The price tool runs on real listings and auction results.
06The study
Our study covered 18 robot types and runs to 17 pages. In it, expected loss was 0.3% once robot company failure was removed, and 5.2% with all causes included.5 Lenders can ask us for the study summary through the lender form.